RSMC regional specialised meteorological centre fiji
Tropical disturbance advisory number 9 issued from RSMC Nadi
Feb 04/1404 (4am Rarotonga time).
Tropical cyclone Meena centre [970hpa] was located near 14.1s 165.9w at 041200 utc. Cyclone moving east southeast at around 8 knots and expected to curve southeast. Expect sustained winds of 65 knots close to the centre increasing to 75 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours, winds over 47 knots within 70 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre extending 200 miles in the northeast quadrant.
Meena has undergone intensification in the last six hours. The system remains in a region of strong diffluence. Upper level outflow is enhanced by strong cross equatorial wind flow and has become good in all quadrants. Expect vertical wind shear to decrease as Meena accelerates towards the southeast, allowing further intensification. Global models are consistently forecasting southeast movement followed by an acceleration towards the southeast during the next 24 to 48 hours.
At 12 hrs valid at 050000 utc 15.1s 164.6w mov se at 10 kt with 70 kt close to centre
At 24 hrs valid at 051200 utc 16.4s 163.3w mov se at 10 kt with 75 kt close to centre
At 36 hrs valid at 060000 utc 17.8s 162.2w mov se at 10 kt with 75 kt close to centre
At 48 hrs valid at 061200 utc 19.9s 160.7w mov se at 15 kt with 80 kt close to centre
The next tropical disturbance advisory on Meena will be issued around 042030 utc.
Special weather bulletin number ten for northern cooks on tropical cyclone Meena issued from RSMC Nadi feb 04/1153 utc 2005 utc.
Tropical cyclone warning a gale warning remains in force for Suwarrow. A strong wind warning remains in force for the rest of the northern Cooks. Tropical cyclone Meena centre [975hpa] was located near 14.0s 166.3w at 040900 utc.
Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at around 5 knots and expected to turn Southeast. Maximum 10-minute average wind of 60 knots close to the centre increasing to 70 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours, winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre extending 200 miles in the northeast quadrant. Tropical Cyclone Meena is intensifying. On its current track, the cyclone centre is expected to be located 180 miles southwest of Suwarrow early today.
Associated active rain bands are moving across the island.
For Suwarrow: northwest winds 30 to 35 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Frequent heavy rain with squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas. Heavy swells. Sea flooding likely of coastal areas.
For the rest of the northern cooks: expect north to northwest winds 25 to 30 knots gusting 45 knots about Nassau and Pukapuka. Elsewhere, fresh north to northeast winds, becoming strong and gusty at times.
Expect periods of heavy rain with squally thunderstorms. Rough seas.